Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $134,881$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,916$ on 2020-12-02

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,610$ on 2020-12-02

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $335,660$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,045$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,315.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,315.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $73,015$ on 2020-12-02

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,641,610$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $57,045$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,440.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 50.6)}}\) (asimptote \(37,440.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $761,230$ on 2020-12-02

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,921,374$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,464,097.8}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 261.5)}}\) (asimptote \(23,464,097.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $273,446$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{260,365.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(260,365.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,325,800$ on 2020-12-02

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,663,467$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $59,796$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,877.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 49.1)}}\) (asimptote \(43,877.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,600,069$ on 2020-12-02

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $266,158$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,972$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,918.7}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 53.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,918.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $259,186$ on 2020-12-02

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,117,953$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17,659$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,086.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,086.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $310,730$ on 2020-12-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 100%
Qatar recovered 93%
Saudi Arabia recovered 93%
Zambia recovered 89%
El Salvador recovered 82%
Bolivia recovered 80%
Tajikistan recovered 73%
Kuwait recovered 73%
Cabo Verde recovered 70%
Czechia recovered 67%
Venezuela recovered 66%
Maldives recovered 63%
Jordan recovered 59%
India recovered 58%
Switzerland recovered 47%
Togo recovered 45%
Armenia recovered 43%
Slovakia recovered 36%
Bangladesh recovered 34%
Austria recovered 32%
Ethiopia recovered 27%
Malaysia recovered 26%
Argentina recovered 24%
Romania recovered 16%
Poland recovered 15%
Jamaica recovered 11%
Sierra Leone recovered 2%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,230$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57,160.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(57,160.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27.2}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(27.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57$ on 2020-12-02

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $139,256$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,290.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 99.7)}}\) (asimptote \(127,290.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $239$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 96.8)}}\) (asimptote \(225.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,504$ on 2020-12-02

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $357,872$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{345,092.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 107.7)}}\) (asimptote \(345,092.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,919$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,817.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 130.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,817.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,440$ on 2020-12-02

Zambia⮸

Population $18,383,955$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,700$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,980.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 140.9)}}\) (asimptote \(16,980.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $357$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{345.7}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 115.4)}}\) (asimptote \(345.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $257$ on 2020-12-02